Iingxaki zokubonelela ngelanga eziqale kunyaka ophelileyo ngamaxabiso aphezulu kunye nokunqongophala kwe-polysilicon ziyaqhubeka ukuya ku-2022. Kodwa sele sibona umahluko ocacileyo ukusuka kuqikelelo lwangaphambili ukuba amaxabiso aya kuhla kancinci kancinci kwikota nganye kulo nyaka.I-PV Infolink's Alan Tu ihlola imeko yemarike yelanga kwaye inika ukuqonda.
Iiprojekthi zePV InfoLink zifuna imodyuli yehlabathi jikelele yePV ukufikelela kwi-223 GW kulo nyaka, ngengqikelelo enethemba ye-248 GW.Umthamo wofakelo olongezelelekileyo kulindeleke ukuba ufikelele kwi-1 TW ekupheleni konyaka.
I-China isalawula imfuno ye-PV.I-80 GW eqhutywa ngumgaqo-nkqubo yemfuno yemodyuli iya kuqinisa uphuhliso lwemarike yelanga.Kwindawo yesibini yimarike yaseYurophu, esebenzela ukukhawulezisa uphuhliso lohlaziyo ukuze izilumle kwirhasi yendalo yaseRussia.IYurophu kulindeleke ukuba ibone i-49 GW yemfuno yemodyuli kulo nyaka.
Imakethi yesithathu ngobukhulu, i-United States, ibone ukubonelela kunye nemfuno ehlukeneyo ukusukela kunyaka ophelileyo.Iphazanyiswe nguMyalelo wokuBambisa (i-WRO), unikezelo alukwazi ukufikelela kwimfuno.Ngaphezu koko, uphando malunga nokuchasana nokujikeleza kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asiya kulo nyaka kubangela ukungaqiniseki ngakumbi kwiseli kunye nobonelelo lwemodyuli yee-odolo zase-US kwaye yongeza kumazinga aphantsi okusetyenziswa kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia phakathi kweempembelelo ze-WRO.
Ngenxa yoko, ukubonelela kwimarike yase-US kuya kusilela kwimfuno kulo nyaka wonke;Imfuno yemodyuli iya kuhlala kuma-26 GW kunyaka ophelileyo okanye nangaphantsi.Iimarike ezinkulu ezintathu xa zidibene ziya kuba negalelo malunga ne-70% yemfuno.
Imfuno kwikota yokuqala ka-2022 yahlala malunga ne-50 GW, ngaphandle kwamaxabiso aqhubekayo aphezulu.E-China, iiprojekthi ezirhoxisiweyo kunyaka ophelileyo zaqaliswa.Ngelixa iiprojekthi ezibekwe phantsi zamiswa ngenxa yamaxabiso aphezulu emodyuli kwixesha elifutshane, kwaye imfuno evela kwiiprojekthi ezisasaziweyo iqhubekile ngenxa yobuntununtunu bexabiso eliphantsi.Kwiimarike ezingaphandle kwe-China, i-Indiya yabona uluhlu oluluqilima lwe-inventri ngaphambi kokwaziswa komsebenzi osisiseko wesiko (BCD) nge-1 ka-Epreli, kunye ne-4 GW ukuya kwi-5 GW yemfuno kwikota yokuqala.Imfuno engaguqukiyo iqhubekile e-US, ngelixa iYurophu yabona imfuno eyomeleleyo kunokuba bekulindelwe kunye nezicelo zomyalelo oqinileyo kunye notyikityo.Ukwamkelwa kweemarike ze-EU kumaxabiso aphezulu nako kunyukile.
Lilonke, imfuno kwikota yesibini inokuphenjelelwa sisizukulwana esasasazwayo kunye nezinye iiprojekthi zomgangatho oluncedo e-China, ngelixa uluhlu lwemodyuli eyomeleleyo yaseYurophu itsala phakathi kotshintsho olukhawulezileyo lwamandla, kunye nemfuno ezinzileyo evela kummandla we-Asia-Pacific.I-US kunye ne-Indiya, kwelinye icala, kulindeleke ukuba zibone ukuncipha kwemfuno, ngokulandelelana kuphando oluchasene nokuphepha kunye namazinga aphezulu e-BCD.Nangona kunjalo, imfuno evela kuyo yonke imimandla iqokelele i-52 GW, ingaphezulu kancinci kunekota yokuqala.
Ngaphantsi kwamanqanaba akhoyo amaxabiso, amandla afakiweyo aqinisekisiweyo e-China aya kuqhuba uluhlu lwempahla evela kwiiprojekthi zobungakanani bokusebenza kwikota yesithathu neyesine, ngelixa iiprojekthi zokuvelisa ezisasaziweyo ziya kuqhubeka.Ngokuchasene nale mvelaphi, imakethi yaseTshayina iya kuqhubeka nokusebenzisa umthamo omkhulu weemodyuli.
Imbonakalo yemarike yase-US iya kuhlala ifihliwe de iziphumo zophando oluchasene nokuphepha zityhilwe ekupheleni kuka-Agasti.IYurophu iyaqhubeka nokubona imfuno ye-bullish, kungekho maxesha onyaka aphezulu okanye aphantsi unyaka wonke.
Ngokubanzi, imfuno kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka iya kudlula oko kwisiqingatha sokuqala.I-PV Infolink iqikelela ukunyuka ngokuthe ngcembe kwexesha, ukufikelela kwincopho kwikota yesine.
Ukunqongophala kwePolysilicon
Njengoko kuboniswe kwigrafu (ngasekhohlo), ukunikezelwa kwepolysilicon kuphuculwe ukusuka kunyaka odlulileyo kwaye kunokwenzeka ukuba kuhlangabezane nemfuno yabasebenzisi bokugqibela.Nangona kunjalo, i-InfoLink iqikelela ukuba unikezelo lwepolysilicon luya kuhlala lufutshane ngenxa yezi zinto zilandelayo: Okokuqala, kuya kuthatha malunga neenyanga ezintandathu ukuba imigca emitsha yokuvelisa ifikelele kumthamo opheleleyo, oku kuthetha ukuba imveliso ilinganiselwe.Okwesibini, ixesha elithathiweyo lokuba amandla amatsha eze kwi-Intanethi ahluka phakathi kwabavelisi, amandla akhula kancinci kwikota yokuqala neyesibini, emva koko anyuke ngokuphawulekayo kwikota yesithathu neyesine.Okokugqibela, ngaphandle kokuqhubeka kwemveliso ye-polysilicon, ukuvela kwakhona kwe-Covid-19 e-China kuphazamise unikezelo, kuyishiya ingakwazi ukuhlangabezana nemfuno yecandelo le-wafer, elibambe umthamo omkhulu.
Imathiriyeli ekrwada kunye neendlela zexabiso le-BOM zithatha isigqibo sokuba amaxabiso emodyuli aya kuhlala enyuka.Njengepolysilicon, kubonakala ngathi umthamo wokuvelisa amasuntswana e-EVA unokwanelisa imfuno evela kwicandelo lemodyuli kulo nyaka, kodwa ukugcinwa kwezixhobo kunye nobhubhane kuya kukhokelela kubudlelwane obungalinganiyo bemfuno yokubonelela ngexesha elifutshane.
Amaxabiso ekhonkco lonikezelo kulindeleke ukuba ahlale enyukile kwaye akayi kuhla de kube sekupheleni konyaka, xa amandla amatsha okuvelisa i-polysilicon esiza ngokupheleleyo kwi-intanethi.Kunyaka olandelayo, lonke ikhonkco lokubonelela linokubuyela kwimeko esempilweni, livumela abenzi bemodyuli abanoxinzelelo olude kunye nababoneleli benkqubo ukuba baphefumle kakhulu.Ngelishwa, ukulingana phakathi kwamaxabiso aphezulu kunye nemfuno eyomeleleyo iyaqhubeka nokuba sisihloko esikhulu sengxoxo ngo-2022.
Malunga nombhali
U-Alan Tu ngumncedisi wophando kwi-PV InfoLink.Ugxininise kwimigaqo-nkqubo yelizwe kunye nohlalutyo lweemfuno, ukuxhasa ukuqulunqwa kwedatha ye-PV kwikota nganye kunye nokuphanda uhlalutyo lweemarike zengingqi.Ukwabandakanyeka kuphando lwamaxabiso kunye nomthamo wemveliso kwicandelo leseli, ukunika ingxelo ngolwazi oluyinyani lwemarike.I-PV InfoLink ngumboneleli wengqondo yemakethe ye-PV egxile kwi-PV supply chain.Inkampani inikezela ngeengcaphuno ezichanekileyo, ukuqonda okuthembekileyo kweemarike ze-PV, kunye ne-PV yemarike yokubonelela / i-database yemfuno.Ikwabonelela ngeengcebiso zobungcali ukunceda iinkampani zihlale ziphambi kokhuphiswano kwimarike.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-05-2022