Uphando olutsha oluvela kwi-Cornwall Insight lufumanisa ukuba iifama zelanga ze-grid zihlawula i-10-20% yeendleko zokubonelela ngeenkonzo ezincedisayo rhoqo kwiMarike yoMbane yeSizwe, nangona ngoku ivelisa malunga ne-3% yamandla kwinkqubo.
Akukho lula ukuba luhlaza.Iiprojekthi zelangabaxhomekeke kwingozi ezininzi zokubuyela kutyalo-mali - FCAS phakathi kwabo.
Ukunciphisa, ukulibaziseka koqhagamshelwano, izinto ezilahlekileyo ezisezantsi, inkqubo yokuhanjiswa kombane enganelanga, i-Federal energy-policy vacuum eqhubekayo - uluhlu lwezinto eziqwalaselweyo kunye nabanokuthi bathintele kumgca ophantsi womphuhlisi welanga uhlala ukhula.Ubalo olutsha ngabahlalutyi bamandla iCornwall Insight ngoku ifumanisa ukuba iifama zelanga azilingani ngokulinganayo kwiindleko ezikhulayo zokubonelela ngeenkonzo ezincedisayo zolawulo lwamaza (FCAS) kwiMarike yoMbane yeSizwe (NEM).
I-Cornwall Insight inika ingxelo yokuba iifama zelanga zihlawula phakathi kwe-10% kunye ne-20% yolawulo lulonke lweendleko ze-FCAS kuyo nayiphi na inyanga, xa ngeli nqanaba zivelisa kuphela malunga ne-3% yamandla enziwe kwi-NEM.Xa kuthelekiswa, iifama zomoya zibonelele nge-9% yamandla kwi-NEM kunyaka-mali ka-2019-20 (FY20), kwaye intlawulo yazo eqokelelweyo ye-FCAS ifike malunga ne-10% yeendleko zizonke zolawulo.
Into ethi "i-causer pay" ibhekiselele ekubeni ingakanani na ijenereyitha etenxayo kumyinge wendlela yayo yomgca ukuze ihlangabezane nethagethi yazo elandelayo yokuthunyelwa kwamandla kwixesha ngalinye lokuthunyelwa.
"Uqwalaselo olutsha lokusebenza kuhlaziyo luxanduva lokuba ulawulo oluphezulu lwamaxabiso e-FCAS lubeke kwinzuzo yeeprojekthi zamandla anokuphinda zisetyenziswe kwixesha elizayo," utshilo uBen Cerini, uMcebisi oyiNtloko eCornwall Insight Australia.
Uphando lwale nkampani lufumanise ukuba unobangela we-FCAS uhlawula iindleko zeejenereyitha zelanga ze-grid zijikeleze i-2,368 ye-megawatt nganye ngonyaka, okanye malunga ne- $ 1.55/MWh, nangona oku kohluka kuyo yonke imimandla ye-NEM, kunye neefama zelanga zaseQueensland ezinezizathu eziphezulu zokuhlawula izinto kwi-FY20 kunezo. ithwalwa kwamanye amazwe.
Cerini uthi, "Ukusukela ngo-2018, iindleko ze-FCAS zolawulo ziye zaguquguquka phakathi kwe-10- $ 40 yezigidi ngekota.I-Q2 ka-2020 yayiyikota encinci xa kuthelekiswa mva nje, kwi-15 yezigidi zeedola kwiikota ezintathu zokugqibela ngaphambi kokuba ngaphezulu kwe-35 yezigidi zeedola ngekota.
Ukuxhalaba ngokwahlukana kuthatha ubunzima
Ukusasaza i-FCAS kuvumela uMsebenzi weMarike yaMandla wase-Australia (AEMO) ukuba alawule ukutenxa ekwenziweni okanye kumthwalo.Abaxhasi abaphambili kwiindleko eziphezulu kakhulu ze-FCAS ze-Q1 kulo nyaka ziziganeko ezintathu "zokwahlukana" ezingalindelekanga: xa iintambo ezininzi zothumelo kwi-NSW esemazantsi zikhutshiwe ngenxa yomlilo wamatyholo, ohlula umntla ukusuka kwimimandla esezantsi ye-NEM ngomhla we-4 kaJanuwari;olona lwahlulo luneendleko eziphezulu, xa uMzantsi Ostreliya neVictoria zahlala esiqithini kangangeentsuku ezili-18 kulandela isaqhwithi esaqhwalelisa iintambo zothumelo nge-31 kaJanuwari;kunye nokwahlulwa kweSouth Australia kunye nentshona yeVictoria's Mortlake Power Station ukusuka kwiNEM ngomhla wesi-2 kuMatshi.
Xa i-NEM isebenza njengenkqubo edibeneyo i-FCAS inokufunyanwa kuyo yonke igridi, ivumela i-AEMO ukuba ibize izibonelelo ezingabizi kakhulu ezivela kubaboneleli abafana neejeneretha, iibhetri kunye nemithwalo.Ngexesha lemisitho yokwahlukana, i-FCAS kufuneka ithathwe ekuhlaleni, kwaye kwimeko yokwahlulwa kweentsuku ezili-18 ze-SA ne-Victoria, kwahlangatyezwana nobonelelo olwandisiweyo oluvela kwisizukulwana esibaswa ngegesi.
Ngenxa yoko, iindleko zenkqubo ye-NEM kwi-Q1 ibizizigidi ezingama-310 zeedola, apho irekhodi le-277 yezigidi zeerandi liye lacholwa ukuya kwi-FCAS efunekayo ukugcina ukhuseleko lwegridi kwezi meko zingaqhelekanga.
Ukubuyela kwinkqubo eqhelekileyo kubiza i-63 yezigidi zeedola kwi-Q2, apho i-FCAS yenze i-45 yezigidi zeedola, "ngenxa yokungabikho kweziganeko ezinkulu zokwahlula inkqubo yamandla", yatsho i-AEMO kwi-Q2 2020 yayo.Ngekota Amandla Dynamicsingxelo.
Ilanga elikhulu linegalelo ekunciphiseni iindleko zombane wehowuseyile
Kwangaxeshanye, i-Q2 2020 yabona amaxabiso ombane akwindawo afikeleleke kakhulu ukusukela ngo-2015;kunye ne-48-68% esezantsi kunokuba bekunjalo kwi-Q2 2019. I-AEMO idwelise izinto ezinegalelo ekuthotyweni kwamaxabiso athengiswayo njenge: "amaxabiso aphantsi egesi kunye namalahle, ukunciphisa izithintelo zamalahle eMount Piper, ukunyuka kwemvula (kunye nemveliso yamanzi), kunye nentsha. unikezelo oluhlaziyekayo”.
Imveliso yegrid-scale yamandla ahlaziyekayo (umoya kunye nelanga) inyuke ngama-454 MW kwi-Q2 2020, ibalelwa kwi-13% yomxube wokubonelela, ukusuka kwi-10% kwi-Q2 yowama-2019.
Amandla ahlaziyekayo anexabiso eliphantsi aya kwandisa kuphela igalelo lawo ekunciphiseni amaxabiso e-wholesale energy;kunye newebhu esasazwe ngakumbi neyomeleziweyo yothumelo oluqhagamsheleneyo, kunye nemithetho ehlaziyiweyo elawula uqhagamshelo lwebhetri kwi-NEM, ibambe isitshixo sokuqinisekisa ukufikelela kwi-FCAS enexabiso lokhuphiswano njengoko kufuneka.
Okwangoku, uCerini uthi abaphuhlisi kunye nabatyali-mali bajonga ngokusondeleyo nayiphi na imingcipheko eyongeziweyo kwiindleko zeprojekthi: "Njengoko amaxabiso athengiswayo ehla, ixesha lokuthenga amandla elinokuthi lifutshane, kwaye izinto ezilahlekileyo ziye zaguquguquka," uyachaza.
ICornwall Insight ibhengeze injongo yayo yokubonelela ngoqikelelo lwexabiso le-FCAS ukuqala ngoSeptemba ka-2020, nangona iintlobo zeziganeko ezibangele ukuba i-FCAS inyuke kwi-Q1 kunzima ukuyilindela.
Nangona kunjalo, uCerini uthi, "Amatyala e-FCAS ngoku aqinile kwi-ajenda yokunyameka."
Ixesha lokuposa: Aug-23-2020